Monday, February 23, 2009

What The Analysts Are Saying About The Banks

Reading a lot about how nationalization cant and wont happen.

Most analysts hate the idea of this, stating that it would "crush the bank stocks" (I think this is already the case).

"No intervention is needed as long as depositors are safe". This is a stupid statement, depositors will pull money out of a bank if they think the bank is in serious trouble. This in turn makes the banks insolvent. This is basic human nature, when we see trouble...we react spontaneously..for good or bad.

Reading that the "government shouldn't cater to the fears of Wall Street". This is another ludicrous statement, the government has been catering to Wall Street for 100 years. That is why we have TARP, TALF, Term Auctions, lower interest rates, forced mergers, and the backing of AIG, FNM, and Freddie. Do these people actually read over the things they write before they hit submit? Who proof reads their analyst reports?

"Customers will avoid a government owned bank", Ridiculous! Do customers currently feel warm and fuzzy with the likes of Pandit and Ken Lewis running their respective companies? Customers don't care unless the financial institution they currently have their life savings in is currently trading at $1.62! "Employees will avoid these type of companies". Most dumb statement ever, with the economy losing 600,000 jobs a month, people are not that selective with respect to where they work. They have bills to pay.

"Will the government ever be able to sell the banks back to the public"? Who knows?? The public currently doesn't want them anyway. The massive institutional selling in the financial space leads me to believe that no one wants financial exposure in their portfolios.

Analysts also claim that "the banks are liquid, so why liquidate"? The only reason they are liquid, is because of the U.S. Taxpayer. If the banks actually found religion (BTW- There is No God) they would mark down their toxic crap to 30 cents on the dollar instead of 70 cents on the dollar, where the market currently values them, but if they do, guess what? They are not that liquid any more.

In a much more "favorable environment, they would be in a better position to mange their business". I cant stop laughing reading that last one. This is a 100 year storm that has hit the credit markets. There is no favorable environment currently or even in the foreseeable future.

These analysts all should come clean and just state the obvious:

"We need the banks to be publicly traded companies because how else are we going to justify our absurd salaries"? "We need them to be publicly traded so we ourselves can do deals to support our investment banking business". "We can no longer screw the public tax payer if the government is running the banks".

You see...Is it that hard?

Don't believe this rally will hold, as the government keeps wanting to put a band aid on a patient that is being rolled into the morgue...

Please can we all just tag the toes of Bank Of America and Citigroup already?

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