Friday, February 19, 2010

Gyro's Going From Broke?

Greece is in a race to the bottom.
In one final last ditch effort to raise cash we have this:

Greece's Next Test Is in a Bond Sale
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703315004575072772642726384.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLTopStories

This is no different to what Russia did in the hours leading to their default. Don't be surprised to find out that Goldman Sachs will be the book runner.

Why not try to fix a debt and leverage crisis with more debt and leverage?
I will say this. This is just another attempt by Greek officials in cahoots with bankers around the world to raid the coffers of the public.

The best thing for Greece to do for the Greek people is to default on their debts. Greece has some 4.5MM workers supporting some $300B in debts. Its mathematically impossible for them to restructure their finances. They don't have the horses or the juice left. The only thing other then default is to let the leeches at GS come in and fleece what ever is left before a formal default. This sounds to me a lot like the late 90's. Times don't change.

The one thing to watch is the CDS levels after the debt is placed next week. I am sure the CDS will come in the days before and then suddenly jump higher. This will be obviously Goldman and other predator banks just positioning themselves for the eventual collapse.

I personally think Greece is coming to the markets far too quickly. The bankers are running the countries finances. They will no doubt price these bonds friendly to the investor public. But how friendly? Europe in general is on a major debt issue binge. Portugal is also on tap to raid the coffers as well.

All of these public sovereign bond issues is on the backs of yes higher short rates in the US as well as major stresses in European High Yield debt markets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/7251901/Credit-markets-flash-hottest-warning-signal-since-crisis.html

UK Gilt market is not exactly a great market at the moment. There is no more support for these Gilts in the absence of QE. If Gilts go down the drain then the German Bund Market is next.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/feb/18/bond-vigilantes-uk-budget-deficit

Also there is a massive exodus out of HY funds. Investors are clearly worried about risk and high beta offerings.



These are the headwinds that are in the Gyro's Grill.
We will quickly find out if this in fact the Gyro's last stand.

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