Saturday, May 1, 2010

Watch Sentiment

The biggest and most dangerous risk to this market advance IMHO is sentiment. There is far to much complacency going on. When the original GS news about the SEC case came out, everyone shrugged it off the following week as a major buying opportunity. After the congressional hearings on GS this week, it was the same old bullish rhetoric.

Barron's is running this story today.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB127266756531384973.html

"Recently, Alan relates, money-market and bear-fund assets both fell to multiyear lows, while bull- and sector-fund assets mounted to their highest levels since the October 2007 market peak. Currently, he reports, there is roughly $7.50 in bull and sector funds for every $1 in bear-market fund assets, which he calls “the most ridiculously one-sided sentiment we have seen since the tech mania convinced folks that no price was too high to pay."

Who knows what happens to Greece. The market always rallies on days where there are rumors of a bailout.

What happens when the inevitable default happens?

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