This Time Is Different?

I am currently reading the Reinhart and Rogoff book "This Time Is Different."
An excellent read.

Please go out and buy this at AMAZON.COM

http://www.amazon.com/This-Time-Different-Centuries-Financial/dp/0691142165/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1291732006&sr=8-1

If you happen to buy it from this link I get a few shekels, not enough to live on let me tell you.

Well! The Futures are screaming higher this morning. Up some 12 points from last nights close. If they hold these levels it will be a new high for 2010. Yippee!

Looks like risk assets are getting a big bid as extend and pretend and TTID (This Time Is Different) is winning over Fraudclosure, European Sov Debt, Housing, and that small thing called jobs. The markets are also strong in the face of an impending Chinese Interest Rate Hike as soon as this weekend. But I digress, who cares when lower taxes, tax cuts and free money for not working trumps trivial stuff like reality, jobs, and commodity inflation?

Did I just say lower taxes? Tax Cuts? Oh Yes! I did! The markets are also stumbling over themselves like a drunken sailor on shore leave. In case you missed it our President- Barack Obama bent over to the GOP on taxes. This is not a surprise coming from #44. Should we call him Mr. December?

This is the deal on taxes:

Obama is extending ALL of the Bush tax cuts for two years. Which means after he loses the election the tax cuts will be made permanent. These are the same Bush Tax cuts that he swore would be reversed if he got elected.This is why Independents voted for him. This is why the ccultural/pprofessional Left voted for him.

Reduce the worker payroll tax for one year. From 6.2% to 4.2%.

Temporary reinstatement of the estate tax at 35%, which means again after he loses the election, the estate tax will be eliminated permanently across the board.

Extension of UI for the long term unemployed.

All of this of course is completely unfunded. I have stated before that Barack Obama is more like George W. Bush then George W. Bush himself.

http://tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/11/obama-is-more-bush-then-bush.html

This is no longer a discussion.

Double down in Afghanistan? Check!
Keep GITMO open? Check
Keep Extraordinary Rendition? Check!
Do not prosecute banksters? Check!
Keep State Secrets? Check!
Keep Defense Budget near $700B? Check!
ObamaCare like Bush Medicare Part B? Check!
Have Lobbyists and PACS dominate? Check!
Extend & Pretend into oblivion? Check
Reappoint Bernanke after Bush mistake? Check!
Keep Bush Tax Cuts? Check!


There are hundreds of examples of the Obama policy that is lock step with the Bush policies, this is just a taste of the massive betrayal of #44.

I have never seen a President in my life or in modern times betray the country that elected him as much as Barack Obama. Bush may have been a dolt but he at least catered to his base. Where is Obama? Massive loss of respect and trust will lead Independents and the Left to abandon Obama. The Democrats would be stupid to renominate him in 2012.

What this means to the market short term is more Alice In Wonderland. What it means mid/long term is Alice In Chains.

I keep hearing This Time Is Different. Don't Fight The Fed. Don't Fight Big Money. Don't Fight The Tape. How did this work for everyone in 2000? 2007? 2008?

In the short term, investors have a long memory. Its like putting your hand on a hot oven. But in the mid and long term the memories are very short and the same idiots that were buying Ariba and Commerce One at $500 are buying Chipolte, Bidu, Priceline, and Netflix at the same valuations. Remember! This Time Is Different.

I would like to leave you with two links that tell me that nothing really ever changes.

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/12/07/the-stocktwits-ascendancy-now-on-yahoo-finance/

We now need to hear the missives of total idiots when getting quotes on Yahoo?
Is this anything different than the Silicon Investor and Clearstation? What about Meritocracy.com?

http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2010/12/05/three-ideas-for-the-under-invested/

I can say one thing regarding human nature. Its never different anytime. Doing the same thing over and over is insanity. You cant fix a debt and leverage crisis with more debt and leverage.

This little end of year market melt up will end badly in tears.