One More brutal data point that people are in denial over.
The default rate of US Commercial Real Estate bank loans reached its highest level in almost 15 years.
During the first quarter 2009, the national default rate for commercial real estate mortgages held by regulated depository institutions rose to 2.25 percent from 1.62 in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the Real Estate Econometrics. The 0.63 percentage-point jump is the largest quarterly increase since at least 1992, and pushed the default rate to its highest level since 1994. The default rate does not include loans on apartments, which increased by 0.68 percentage points between the fourth quarter and first quarter 2009 to 2.45 percent
Depository institutions hold about half the $3.2 trillion in debt on U.S. commercial property, with the commercial mortgage-backed securities market accounting for about 25 percent of that. Insurance companies and government-sponsored entities such as Fannie Mae account for the remainder
What attributed to the default surge is the following:
1- Rising vacancy rates.
2-Falling rents and increasing operating expenses.
All of which made it more difficult for borrowers to meet principal and interest obligations. Additionally, those borrowers who had been current were not able to refinance or sell their properties in order to meet balloon payments required by maturing mortgages because of the tight lending markets. Mortgages originated in 2006 and 2007 experienced the most significant cash shortfalls because of the large number of mortgages that were based on overly aggressive rent and occupancy projections.
Futures are rallying this morning.
More lambs being led to slaughter.
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