Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Market

Market is trying its best to rally this afternoon. The banks/financials/housing complex continue to weigh down the averages. Retail is also down this afternoon. I would be a buyer of Retail stocks here especially WalMart. ...Just an opinion.

Geithner and Bernanke are both speaking in front of Congress today trying to explain in their circular logic how Tax Payer money has not been wasted. I have come to the understanding that there is going to be an unlimited open checking account of Tax payer money to get us through this crisis. This is not good news my friends. You just cant throw money at a problem hoping to hit bullseye.

Energy is strong after getting blitzed and taken apart yesterday as crude slid 10%. Crude is slightly higher today. I still think that the best places to be are the Techs (Painful) and Energy (Very Painful). Stay away from the financials including GS and MS. Goldman and the Moose are posting earnings in the next few weeks. I think the earnings estimates are far too high considering that proprietary trading was horrible in both January and February. Don't be surprised to see Goldman and or the Moose post losses in their upcoming reports. The only reason to own these two companies ahead of their earnings is if they both drop sharply in the days prior.

Random Thoughts-

BOFA Ken Lewis had to make due with only $10 Million in compensation in 2008. This is down from $24.8 Million in 2007. When will they fire this guy? I was at my local BOFA branch yesterday, safe to say Ken Lewis should stay away from the Hillsborough NJ location.

Geithner and Bernanke both state that AIG had to be rescued. I agree with them, but allowing the CEO to carry on personal business like it was 2007 was absurd.

J.P. Morgan made $5 Billion in Derivatives last year. On the surface it looks like a huge number, but compared to the notional value of their equity, it was small peanuts. They easily could have lost 4-5 times this figure if it wasn't for the government giving them WAMU and Bear Stearns. The problem with JP, is that they will pay out huge bonuses to those traders, but if there was $5Billion in losses....They would be looking for a handout...Guaranteed! I have a very interesting piece I am preparing on JP coming up shortly. The kind of stuff that the press and or the powers that be will never report on. Real Inside stuff from.

Jeff Immelt coming clean at GE? Come on....we all know you are not Jack Welch. You have over promised and under delievered...time to move on Jeff.

The Dry Bulk Shippers look interesting here. The Baltic Dry Index has stabilized and actually looks to be going higher. The stocks are going lower...so something has to give. A lot of these stocks are trading like they are going out of business, unlike the banks, they have not invested in over leveraged swap positions.

Qualcomm actually raising their dividend. Good for them. The cell phone business sucks except for the exception of Apple.

Most suprisingly...Have you noticed that the U.S. Dollar is making new highs? I like this trade, as our currency will be considered the most safe. Also our economy will get better comparisons later in the year. Remember these type of trades are done by large multi national institutions who usually have a 3-5 year horizon. So this trade is looking good for the long term.

Totally Random-

Check out the following:

http://uspoledance.com/

My friend sent me this...I promise...

This is what bored traders do all day.

SAD NOTE-

It looks like those three Football Players have indeed been lost at sea. Very sad as the families of the victims will never have closure.

No comments:

Post a Comment