Friday, July 31, 2009

GDP Comes In At -1%

Beats Consensus.

Second quarter GDP contracts less than expected, but the sizable downward revision to 1st Qtr. number, to negative 6.4% from last reported minus 5.5% is not good.

The Real News is here:

Federal Spending up a stunning 11%, yet economy still contracted 1%?

"Most of GDP is made up of consumer spending. Friday's data showed it slid by 1.2% April through June, after increasing 0.6% in the first and dropping 3.1% in the fourth quarter".

This is a worrying drop.

Durables declined 7.1% vs increase of 3.9%.
Non Durables down 2.5% vs 1.9% rise.
Service spending at least posted a gain of 0.1% vs drop of 0.3%.

I have been stating that the consumer is dead. Most of America is in debt reduction/savings mode for the next 5-10 years.

2/3 of the economy is consumer spending, and so far government spending has helped Wall Street more than Main Street.

The futures are currently trading off the consumer aspect of the report.

Futures down 3 after rallying 6 ahead of report.

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