Sunday, August 30, 2009

Potential Melt Up Coming For SP 500?

Bank America, yes the same bank that was saved by TARP, has a note out on the markets. They say the SP500 and Nikkei are on identical courses. From this, they see the markets melting up an additional 40%.

First question-
Why was this chart not given to us back in March?

Second question-
OK, so looking at the past will definitely tell us whats happening in the future?

Third Question-
Is not Bank Of America using past data points to forecast future data? Is this not how all of the Quantitative Models got it wrong by saying that housing prices would never go down?

Fourth Question-
Do we ever talk about jobs anymore?

The Last time we heard of a potential "Melt Up" in the markets was back in Sept 2007, after the Fed lowered interest rates. Bears had thrown in the towel and had given in to the bulls. We all know what happened after that.



So in the end we are just like Japan, a lame economy. Just like Japan where economic realty and market stupidity diverged many years ago.

Also, didn't the Nikkei eventually crumble to new new new lows over the next 10 years or so?

What really is happening is that the powers that be are just giving the machines more ammunition to take the markets up.

Listen, I can come up with a 100 charts that say the same thing. But the real devastating reality is maybe this time is different? What we have seen over the last few years, is that nothing was conventional about the market correction. Conventional economic theory can be thrown out the window. Financial risk management can be thrown out the window. And yes, Technical analysis can also be thrown out the window. It doesn't matter, the one time out of a million instances can kill you, just like the credit storm which in many circles was considered the 1000 year perfect storm.

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