Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Market Topping?

Like I said, fraudulent consumer sentiment numbers that came out at 10am propelled index values higher. You see, there are 3 sets of Consumer Sentiment Numbers that are published.

1-Every Day People
2-People On Wall Street
3-People In Government & Congress

They basically average 2&3 together to get a complete idea how the country is feeling, why should they not, the only ones who's lives have changed for the better since March 9Th are the ones on Wall Street and Government.

I said earlier this month, when the government actually had the nerve to say that the unemployment rate dipped, it basically gave the Dow a direct run up to 10K, when it was 9K. I still see that number as a given, the way the market is trading.

tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/more-on-payrolls.html"

tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/interesting-point-that-bears-watching.html"

Markets tend to overshot on either sides of sentiment, this is no different.

But this is a no volume market with nobody trading. Markets only go down if there are people actively on the sell side leaning on stocks. I am not seeing that as of right now.

tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/what-is-overbought.html"

tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/still-no-volume.html"

tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/no-sellers-anywhere.html"

But it can all change after Labor Day when the big boys come back to play.

tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/vix-is-telling-you-september-is-going.html"

This market goes up on bad news and surges on decent news. That has to be respected until further notice. I can say the market is topping out, but then again what does that mean? Opinions don't matter, trade what you see. What I see is low volume ramp up of crappy stocks that propel stock index futures higher in the face of no sellers. I am not buying it realistically, theoretically, organically, and academically, but that doesn't mean I am aggressively selling/shorting it either. I got short right after the 10AM ramp up, and was able to cover lower, making some decent loot, but quickly found out that buyers just took a break for an hour. I would not be suprised if we go much higher today, but wont lose any sleep if we go lower as well.

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