Friday, August 21, 2009

Still No Volume

There is still no volume at all in this market. And its an Options Expiration Day!

We will most likely stay strong for the rest of the day, probably even ramp up into the close.

From doing more research on the housing numbers from this morning, you know the number that has basically fueled this rally, I was able to decipher the following:

Inventory Levels even though are down are still at elevated levels. The historic averages for months of inventory is 5-6 months, we are at close to 10 months of unsold inventory. Also I have spoken about shadow inventory in housing, once this comes on line later this year, we will see prices really drop.

Mortgage rates are very low, mostly because of government intervention in the MBS market, how long can this last? Even with Rates low, sales are still soft.

The precipitous drop in housing still puts prices over historical levels. We are no where near equilibrium price long term.

The hottest markets are the ones where the foreclosures /short sales are happening the most. These areas have had prices drop 50% or more.

If you take into account seasonality, home sales were up only 12K year over year.

Most of the homes are condo/coop on the low end that are being moved. Middle and jumbo mortgage home sales are non existent. There was an increase of 16K of condo/coop in the northeast, if it wasn't for this, the housing number would have been negative, and the markets would be down, not up 130 points.

No comments:

Post a Comment