Friday, September 11, 2009

How To Deal

The Federal Reserve dealt with the recession that began in 1990 by driving short term interest rates from 9% to 3%.

It dealt with the recession that began in 2001 by driving rates from 6.5% to 1%

At this moment it has dealt with the current recession by driving rates from 5.25% to effectively Zero.

But ZERO, it turns out isn't low enough to end this deflationary spiral. And the Fed ant push rates below zero.

The Taylor Rule, which the Fed uses to set short term rates is stating that a rate of -6.8% is needed to reflate asset prices and the broader economy.

This basically means that monetary policy and Quantitative Easing has not and will not work to inflate asset prices. There just is not enough traction in these policies.

We are in a deflationary environment for the foreseeable future.

This is also where the Keynesian Model takes off. This observation that lower bound interest rates don't work led Keynes to advocate higher government spending.
When monetary policy is ineffective and the private sector can’t be persuaded to spend more, the public sector must take its place in supporting the economy. We are currently in full blown Keynesian mode.

Milton Friedman indeed is rolling over in his grave.

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