Friday, November 19, 2010

Will History Repeat Itself?

The more things change the more they stay the same.
History repeats itself.
This time its different.
Blah....Blah...Blah....
Yada...Yada...Yada...

Here is a chart of the SPX as of today's close.


As you can see, the action in the SPX today is very similar to what was happening earlier this year. The market had a serious breakdown in early February over the Greek Debt problems. It completely forgot about those problems and marched exponentially higher for the next 2 months. It then had a serious break of its vertical uptrend in late April, it tried to fill that down gap back to its uptrend line, but that failed and the ensuing pain was felt culminating with the Flash Crash on May 6th.

Today, we have something very similar. The markets on the backs of QE2 have had a vertically exponential run up since late August. This sharp run up was broken this past week when the Irish Debt problems became a huge global focus. The last few days the market has been trying to get back above that trend line or fill the gap.

What happens next?

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