Quote's Of The Day..

"Every Human" Should Short U.S. Treasuries.
It's "A No Brainer" to sell short Treasuries.
"Every single human being should have that trade."
"Deficits are like putting dynamite in the hands of children."

-Nassim Nicholas Taleb

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a3E4uC5VIFeo&pos=5

What can I say?

"The problem we have in the United States, the level of debt is still very high and being converted to government debt, We are worse-off today than we were last year. In the United States and in Europe, you have fewer people employed and a larger amount of debt.”

I agree with Mr. Taleb's underlying thesis. His way of thinking. He is a brilliant man and I have read most of his writings and books. I also try to see him speak when he is in the city. But I differ here:

Shorting treasuries is a lot different then shorting stocks. Being on the short side of the market is not for everyone. Also getting short treasuries involves heavy leverage. I am thinking what Mr. Taleb means when shorting treasuries is being short treasury ETF's? I don't know. Either way the short game is not a game for everyone and should not be sold as advise for the masses.

I just think he is wrong here although for the right reasons. He is basically saying that Bernanke and Summers are going to screw things up so that interest rates have no room but to go up.

Treasuries will rise in the event of another crisis. This is because the USA is still the safest place in the world to park your money. If and when this dynamic changes will be the day that all of us can start living in caves. I cant live in Mr. Taleb's apocalyptic world. Its no good for no one. I have already stated in a previous post what this type of world would look like.

http://tradersutra.blogspot.com/2009/08/meltdown-soon-social-unrestrevolution.html

On the surface it does look like a "No Brainer" to short Treasuries. This is because the government is in a bind currently. There is roughly a $750B demand shortfall in the 2010 UST Refunding Calendar. The only way that this can be rectified is if Treasury yields go higher. The other way? The Federal Reserve and Treasury can engineer an stock market collapse with talks of higher short rates.