Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Far To Much Speculation

Which means a correction is near to hammer the retail investor.
Yes the same retail investor who is trading:

CIT Group
Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac
Citigroup
Vonage

Have you noticed that Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) have quadrupled over the last week? Why are investors bidding up these mutt stocks? Are we not aware that both of these companies owe the government over a $100B combined and must pay massive dividends each year to the treasury? This is not a smart investment long term. These companies were nationalized because the bondholders needed to be made whole.

The volume in these 2 stocks is truly exhibiting moronic behavior. On Monday alone these 2 stocks made up 20% of all NYSE trading volume. There is really no news that is worthwhile other then Freddie stating they don't need any more government funding other then the $50B they have already taken.

These two companies owe so much money to the government then they can actually can earn on their own, they shares are worthless. Goldman Sachs would have to start a satellite office on Venus and Mars, and start securitizing sub prime loans there for the next 50 years for both FNM/FRE to have value that equals today's valuation.

This is pure sentiment/momentum trading at its most reckless state. What typically happens in a late stage bullish tape, is people start to look around for penny stocks and run them up.

This is the type of investor behavior that leads me to believe a major correction is going to happen. I am not saying its happening today or tomorrow, or even next week. But watch after Labor Day when the big boys are back.

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