Friday, August 21, 2009

Seasonal Adjustments Make Housing Look Better

US July Existing Home Sales Up 7.2% To 5.24MM Rate

This figure which everyone knows peaks in July/August every year since we have been living in caves exploded stock index futures higher. The market rallied some 10 points in minutes on this alone.

Existing home sales have now increased 4 months in a row, the basic reasons have been historically low rates, 1st time home buyer tax credits of 8K, and continued foreclosures hammering prices. All in all, some of the existing inventory has been cleaned out. The bottom line here is that inventory trends are improving largely because of government subsidized tax credits, and government buying of MBS to keep rates manageable, all things that are not sustainable for a long lasting economic recovery.

The report breaks down this way.

-First Time Buyers made up 30% helped by tax credits
-Foreclosure activity made up 31% - Not good
-Total Housing Inventory actually rose 7.3%, this figure will rise as more foreclosures come on line.
-National mean existing home prices fell 15% year over year to $178.4K

This is going to be the high part of the year in housing.

This report was released by the biggest lobbying group in housing, the NAR - National Association Of Realtors, the same ones who completely missed the housing correction while it was happening, and to this day probably don't even think there is a problem with real estate.

This comment alone from NAR tells me they are still in the dark.

"The housing market has decisively turned for the better".

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