Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Short

I shorted today, looking for a down day tomorrow. SP futures opened up this morning on news of Bernanke being reinstated by Obama for another term or what Cate sees as Obama elbowing to Bernanke "You get another term, I get another term."
But people already knew that Bernanke was coming in, ie. Goldman Sachs knows everything that goes on in government, which is why they bid the S&P up 5% in just a few days leading up to today and now when the larger public gets wind of the news, Goldman is going to dump their shares on the unsuspecting little guy.
Housing data came in line or beat estimates, market rallied off the number and then sold off, attempted again, but reverted to the mean (SP 1026) by the close.
The S&P has been opening and closing at pretty much the same level for the past several days and I suspect it will open flat tomorrow at the same level. This type of consolidation normally presages a large breakout price move ahead and i believe it will be to the downside.
Last Monday, Shanghai was down big, bottoming out a 20% correction, the media was plastered with news of China being in official bear territory. Naturally we rallied from there, but while US market broke to new highs some key stocks did not. Usually after a big down move like that bearish sentiment re-emerges and we get a bounce for the next few days, but I believe last Monday's sell off was significant and will resume before August end.

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